Disgusted as I am with baseball, its records and the appalling defenders of a certain Giants outfielder, it is with great pleasure--and relief, really--that I look to the coming Premier League season.
It goes almost without saying that Newcastle United should field a better side this season, owing both to notable additions (Allardyce, and subsequently Rozehnal, Enrique, Viduka, Caçapa, Smith, Geremi and Barton), overdue returns (Ameobi and, someday perhaps, Owen) and welcome exits (Bramble and Moore).
But it is interesting to see where Newcastle rates. Odds makers generally suggest a sixth place finish, based on odds of winning the league. Manchester United (11-8) and Chelsea (6-4) are neck and neck, with Liverpool (9-2) and Arsenal (10-1) each gapping a bit lower. Then there's a big break to Spurs (80-1), and an even bigger one to Newcastle (200-1), Everton and Aston Villa (each at 250-1). Sixth is also about where most writers have Newcastle, though I've seen one as low as 14, and a cheeky prediction that Sunderland will finish higher than Newcastle and Middlesbrough.
Sixth place would be the best finish since 2004 and return Newcastle to European club competition, certainly an unqualified success given the fiasco of last season and the slew of changes to the club. And there is good reason to think that such a high finish is possible, perhaps even likely.
Newcastle have a legitimate defense. Rozehnal, Caçapa and Enrique are vetted defenders, whose collective presence should eliminate the desperate need to field a back four of children Huntington, Edgar, Ramage and Taylor (who is the only regular holdover from last year's defense).
The bench is deeper. The midfield clearout, retooled defense and ostensible health of the forwards gives Newcastle far more options and more injury cover than it had at any point last season. You could field a decent enough side from Newcastle's non-starters: Harper, Carr, Huntington, Edgar, Babayaro, Solano, Butt, Dyer, Duff, Martins and Ameobi. This depth also covers the forwards, where the thin ranks forced the purchase of Martins and saw Damien Duff in attack at a couple of points early in the season.
No European play. "Losing... it's the new winning." For a team that is as new and fragile as this one, the slate of games being likely no longer than 50 matches (including cups) is not necessarily a bad thing. Except that it sucks. But still, a silver lining and all that.
However, there are some serious concerns about this team.
1. Injuries. Whatever Allardyce's long-term impact on the readiness of players from an injury standpoint, his brief tenure has not yet made improvements here. Barton and Owen are out for a while with injuries sustained in preseason. Add to this the litany of lingering injuries (Given) and continuing recoveries (Emre and Duff), and the depth of the side, so formidable at first blush, is questioned.
2. Defense. Though better qualified than last year's farce, all of the new defenders are new to the team and new to England.
3. Strikers. On a team this deep up front, who starts? My bet is that, barring injury, we'll see lots of Owen and Viduka. With Owen out, though, look for Obafemi Martins. Will Owen regain some part of his previous form? Will Martins be the killer he was from November through January, or the clubfooted mess of February through May? What role for Ameobi? Smith? Is Andy Carroll ready for the first team? Is Albert Luque still here?
It's safe to say that anything less than a top-half finish is a colossal failure, and sixth or seventh would be a successful turnaround.Labels: Newcastle United, sports